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COLONEL VYKTOR KRATEK
PROJECTED IMPACT OF BIOLOGICAL
ATTACK ON VEKTA
The Eschaton pathogen is still undergoing development and evaluation, and projections regarding any viral outbreak are always approximate. The following projections represent best estimates, based upon deployment of the pathogen against the Vektan capital, Vekta City.
Civilian casualties following deployment are estimated at 2.5 - 3 million from a city-wide population of 10 million in the first week, rising to 7.5 - 8 million by the end of the first month. By the end of the second month, approximately 97% of the city's population would have perished, with long-term survival only assured for those taking refuge in biologically secure facilities.
Military casualties are estimated at 90,000, or the majority of ISA forces stationed in Vekta City. While some may be evacuated, the majority would most likely be employed maintaining order within the city following the outbreak. Evacuation would anyway serve to hasten the spread of infection to other population centers. This spread would be rapid, given the extremely virulent nature of the Eschaton pathogen in its latest form. The virus is readily transmitted (to varying degrees) via air, bodily fluids, contamination of food, water and material surfaces. With no natural immunity among the population and no known anti-pathogen, the outbreak would go largely uncontrolled.
Given that the Eschaton pathogen has always been characterized by its highly fulminant nature, we estimate that 73% of the 40 million population of planet Vekta would be eradicated within three months of the attack.
Mortality rate would decline as the pathogen failed to find new living hosts, making the eventual seizure of the planet by Helghast forces possible. This could be preceded by scorched earth bombing runs utilizing thermite or cyanogen gas warheads.
Military resistance would likely be negligible and limited to any ISA Navy forces evacuated off-planet.